European Institute for International Economic Relations

 

Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW)

 

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Welfens, P.J.J.; Hanrahan, D.: The BREXIT Dynamics: British and EU27 Challenges after the EU Referendum

Welfens, P.J.J.; Hanrahan, D.: The BREXIT Dynamics: British and EU27 Challenges after the EU Referendum

Summary:

The BREXIT dynamics are considerable in a politico-economic perspective. The British referendum of June 23rd, 2016, was a disorderly one as the Cameron government did not include key information in the official government brochure sent to all households across the UK – a study by the Treasury had shown a 10 percent income decline as a consequence of a potential BREXIT, but in the 16-page information brochure distributed to all households/the electorate, this prognosis was not mentioned at all. EU immigration issues played a role not only under Cameron but also under the May government and in the UK government’s White Paper on exiting the EU, respectively. Key issues of BREXIT are related to the potential political instability in the EU. As regards the Global Britain approach of the May government, it is shown here that this is unlikely to work. EU27 reforms are quite important, without adequate reforms and much better leadership in Germany and other EU countries, there will be further disintegration in the EU.

Zusammenfassung:

Aus wirtschaftspolitischer Sicht sind die BREXIT-Dynamiken erheblich. Das britische Referendum am 23. Juni 2016 ist ein Fehlreferendum, denn die Cameron-Regierung verschwieg, in ihrer 16-seitigen Informationsbroschüre für alle Haushalte, den wichtigen Befund der Studie des Finanzministeriums, wonach ein EU-Austritt Großbritanniens einen 10 Prozent Einkommensverlust bedeutet. Die Frage der EU-Zuwanderung spielte nicht nur eine Rolle unter Premier Cameron, sondern auch unter Premier May und im BREXIT-Weißbuch ihrer Regierung. Kernfragen des BREXITS beziehen sich auf potentielle politische Instabilität in der EU. Was den Global Britain-Ansatz der May-Regierung angeht, so wird hier gezeigt, dass dieser unwahrscheinlich ist. EU-27 Reformen sind wichtig, ohne angemessene Reformen und eine bessere Führung in Deutschland und anderen EU-Länder, besteht eine weitere Desintegration in der EU.

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