European Institute for International Economic Relations

 

Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW)

 

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Paul J.J. Welfens: Cameron’s Information Disaster in the Referendum of 2016: An Exit from Brexit?

Summary:

The UK’s BREXIT-referendum on June 23rd, 2016, resulted in 51.9% of voters opting for the UK to leave the EU. This result, however, was a direct consequence of the situation that in the official 16-page information leaflet, which was delivered to all households prior to the vote, the Cameron government did not include any information on the economic effects of BREXIT, although a study by HM Treasury had given rise to internal data on these effects by early April: -10% in long-term real income. On the basis of a popularity function, one can calculate that in the case of this information being widely known to the public, the result could have rather been 52% in favour of Remain. From this perspective, the referendum itself loses legitimacy and the call for a second referendum becomes irrefutable.

 

 

Zusammenfassung:

Das Ergebnis des BREXIT-Referendums vom 23. Juni 2016 ist 51,9% für den EU Austritt. Dieses Ergebnis ergab sich allerdings nur durch den Umstand, dass die Cameron-Regierung den privaten Haushalten in der 16-seitigen Info-Broschüre zum Referendum keine Infos zu den ökonomischen BREXIT-Effekten zugeleitet hat, obwohl eine Studie des Finanzministeriums schon Anfang April hierzu interne Zahlen errechnet hatte: -10% langfristige reale Einkommensverluste. Auf Basis von Popularitätsfunktionen kann man errechnen, dass bei korrekter Information der Wählerschaft das Wahlergebnis 52% pro EU-Verbleib gewesen wäre. Von daher hat das Referendum keine Legitimität und ein zweites Referendum wird unabweisbar.

 

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